This curling mass of rain is a typical cyclone. This cyclone is called Vaianu and it travels with a speed of about 20 knots to the South. The red color means heavy rainfall. Here the winds are generally 50 knots, with gusts of about 80 knots. (resp. 95 and 150 km/hr). The more to the South, the colder the temperature of the sea so the lesser the winds. Vayanu becomes a tropical storm when it hits Ya in New Zealand.
This s a screenshot from Predict Wind. The red dot is where the Ya is right now. This is the picture of the very moment that this blog is written. The windmarks show 30 knots of wind, coming from the East, with severe gusts making the Ya tremble and shake all over. The Eastern wind builts up large and steep waves along the shore. If you are sailing along the coast now, you have a problem.
The continuous Eastern wind sweeps the water from the ocean up to the coast. The Ya is now in Whangarei. Normally when the flood turns to ebb, the water level will drop. But tomorrow morning, when it turns to ebb, it is expected that the water level will not fall, simply because the heavy winds have pushed the seawater level some 2 meters higher. So the water from the river will not be able to get out.
Some 6 hours later the eye of the cyclone will pass. The Ya is to the West of the eye of the cyclone. The wind will rapidly turn to South…
… and then to the West. Everything, all debris, that has first been blown to the West, will now be blown back to the East. At sea, the Western winds meet the West going waves. This creates hectic and unpredictable waves. No ship can handle these waves. This is when ships perish.
Lucky us, the Ya is in Whangarei on blocks, on the boatyard. The only water she will feel, is rain water soaking from her deck along the hull. And perhaps the bottom will feel a touch of river water when the water rises beyond the banks of the river. But, while writing this blog, she shakes and trembles all over. Respect for Mother Nature.