In 2024 the temperature rose more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
A maximum of 1.5 degrees extra temperature is, according to the Paris Climate Agreement, the preferable maximum temperature rise. We would only get small draughts, small floods, smaller forest fires, et cetera.
But now already on 1.5 degrees, with no sign that it would lower, or at least would not climb that fast… it looks like we will get the worst scenario, with runaways, deep draughts, bid floods. With mass casualties, mass migration, et cetera.
Or, is this year a coincidence?
Let us have a look with some graphs.
As for 2024, the concentration reached 427 ppm (source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth’s_atmosphere), which is the highest ever. Well, ever, at least for as long as humanity exists.
And it is rising faster and faster, we can see that if we make the period shorter. Let us have a look from when the fossil fuel combustion started to get serious.
The input CO2 into the atmosphere has been big in 2024- an exceptional year.
But is it because the emissions rose? The the next graphic shows a nuance.
The causes, and the early warning
In the picture above we generally see:
- the fossil fuel emissions are calming down with growing
- the emissions from land use diminish
But we see the oceans absorbing less CO2. Also the forests take less CO2. Why?
The forests are easy: there are less and less, first because of the massive logging, and second because of because of the number of fires. In Canada only, the forest fires of 2024 emitted as much CO2 as whole Europe emits in one year (source: https://nos.nl/artikel/2567613-zorgwekkende-toename-co2-vooral-doordat-natuur-minder-lijkt-op-te-nemen)
These forest fires a partially caused by… longer draughts. This looks like a first, early attempt of a runaway. We could pick it up as an early warning.
The oceans take less CO2, because the water is getting warmer. There is a process of (relative) acidification, which leads to less growth of life in the ocean. Often this is plankton, fytoplankton, and the Copepod, all of these made of Carbon. A second cause is what we discussed in the last blog: since the ocean water is that much polluted, it is not capable anymore to absorb. Another cause of (relative) acidification. Also this we can pick up as a process that could speed up, making it a runaway.
Oh, and by the way, now the permafrost (ice) is melting and then we get an awful lot of CO2….
So, 2024 looks like the pivoting year. Or, it could be the early warning of the Earth.
Plenty motivations for you and me, for our governments especially, to set the level playing field so such way that emitting fossil fuels and other pollution don’t pay off.